Inflation Analysis: Q3 2022

Inflation Analysis: Q3 2022


  • Inflation worries are in the headlines, and the data are challenging the Fed’s dual mandate to manage inflation and unemployment.
  • Inflation had consistently undershot the Fed’s 2% target, prompting the Fed to change its inflation framework.
  • Fed’s aim is to achieve an average of 2% inflation over the medium term, which is not specifically defined.
  • Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index is the Fed’s target, different from and typically lower than CPI-U, which had a year-over-year gain of 8.3% as of Sept. 30. Core PCE dropped from 5.4% in February to 4.7% in July, then inched back up to 5.1% in September.

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