Callan Family Office 2024 State of Business Report

Earlier this year, BCA Research published a piece titled “Chilling with the Maytag Repairman.” This report contained a summary table (see below) that showed the annualized rate of real GDP growth and its domestic components across all postwar recessions. The table compared the compound-annual growth rates of consumer spending, private (corporate) investment, and government spending. Note that consumer spending does not always outright contract in recessions, though it typically weakens. The results do infer a high correlation with recessions occurring when corporate investment declines, and that this is the key factor when recessions arrive as businesses restrain their capital budgeting and cut spending.

With this as a starting point, we examine where businesses stand going into the third quarter of 2024.

For our latest insights, please download our 2024 State of Business Report.