Real Estate Indicators

The real estate market, as measured by the NCREIF Property Index, has been on an often unpredictable ride over the past 25 years, with quarterly returns peaking near 6% and falling as low as -8%. Many real estate investors were blindsided by the market collapse in 2008 and 2009. Callan’s Real Assets Consulting Group has identified seven indicators—based on spreads in real estate and fixed income markets—that have helped signal when the institutional real estate market is overheated or cooled. Individually these spreads offer little guidance for real estate investors, but assessed collectively alongside prevailing market dynamics, Callan believes that narrowed spreads across multiple indicators frequently occur prior to periods of declining returns

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